供应趋紧将使布伦特原油价格年底突破每桶70美元水平；① Natasha Kaneva等摩根大通分析师在报告中说，虽然原油需求的复苏会不平衡且需要更长的时间，但是鉴于OPEC+可能会继续保持自律，而且美国页岩油产量增长也会继续受限，原油供应的下降速度相对将会快得多。② 报告称，全球石油市场从2月份起应会趋紧，一直到2022年年中供应都将保持非常紧张的状态。随着美国页岩油生产因应油价的走高而减缓，下半年应会出现明显的供需缺口，从而致使布伦特原油四季度均价达到为每桶68美元，年底时价格更会突破每桶70美元③ 报告指出，在油价于2022年上半年某个时候恢复到2019年水平之前，OPEC+可能会一直保持自律，今年的日产量仅会增加大约200万桶。④ 拜登政府诸如暂停联邦土地上的油气租赁等行动近期不会产生太大影响，但是会使页岩油供应增长继续受限⑤ 另据美国国务卿Antony Blinken称，被禁伊朗原油重返市场仍将是“很久以后的事”
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