在实盘交易中，交易者的行为是复杂多变的，很多模型都由于与历史的吻合度太高，市场行为的一个轻微变化就会造成效果的明显恶化。再加上投资者某些情绪化和草率的出入场，承担了一些本没有必要承担的风险，再加上佣金和滑点，如此，根据市场的实际结构来说，大部分投机者注定就应该发生亏损。
事实上，真正在市场上赚大钱的人，大都是悲观者和幸运者。说悲观，是因为他们都曾有过亏得睡不着觉的经历，知道赚钱的艰难；说幸运，是因为他们起起伏伏，但最终都活下来了。
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