下调明年美元汇率预期，料未来12个月跌9%；① 高盛全球外汇和新兴市场策略共同负责人Zach Pandl在12月18日报告中下调了其对贸易加权美元汇率的预测，预期在未来12个月内将再下跌9%。② Pandl指出，该行看空美元观点的主要风险是美联储早于预期转向鹰派。③ 但他写道：“最近的联邦公开市场委员会会议是确认疫苗有效以来的第一次会议，这使我们相信，由于结构性通胀趋势减弱，美联储距离收紧政策还有很长的路要走。”④ 根据11月13日发布的报告，Pandl此前曾预测广义贸易加权美元指数2021年将下跌6%。⑤ 他说，进一步贬值的理由包括“在美国资产市场长期超群表现后美元的高估、美联储降息后利差交易失宠、美联储新的平均通胀目标框架以及全球经济复苏
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