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季节性因素显示,美元在12月份料将进一步承压; ① 业内分析人士指出,以以往的季节性汇市模式来看,美元指数在每年的12月份都倾向于下行,此后在年初出现反弹。造成这一走势的原因在于美国企业在年底之际为了避税目的,会将利润资金汇往海外分公司,此后在年关过后再汇回本土,而今年这一趋势仍将延续; ② 而除此之外,美国财政政策当前的巨大不确定性,包括现有各项援助措施在年底到期的前景,也在今年最后一个月对美元汇价构成额外利空,这可能同时倒逼美联储在本月中旬的会议上追加宽松力度。在综合性压力之下,美元指数在年底之际可能下探90关口,此后汇价或要在明年1月底美国新政府确认就位之后,才有望重新走入反弹周期

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