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Verified Official
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布伦特原油转为近月升水结构; ① 昨日油价继续回升,不过与单边价格相比,昨天更值得注意的是布伦特近次月价差转为升水结构以及布伦特WTI价差拉大,我们认为当前市场核心交易的矛盾点并非疫苗(虽然美国表示将在三周内开始接种疫苗),而是近期全球石油库存降幅超预期,尤其是海上浮仓库存,由于亚太买兴回归,现货市场出现明显转暖迹象,Dubai/Oman月差在10月份已经是近月升水结构,这显示全球原油需求仍具有较强韧性(虽然全球炼厂利润依然低迷); ② 而对于布油美油价差扩大,一方面显示了当前美国与非美市场(尤其是亚太)需求端的强弱差异,另一方面,当前交割地库欣库存再度接近历史高位也压制了美油近月价格。但综合而言,目前油市的不确定因素依然较多,包括美国是否局部封城以及欧佩克是否如期推迟减产#角逐原油市场##BRENT.F#

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