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日本官方已释放干预预期,美元兑日元短线下破103料不易;① 美元兑日元在周四欧洲时段早盘暂时止跌,自日低反弹逾20点,重新试探收复104关口。但总体上来看,由于美国选情及疫情负面消息仍然在发酵,避险日元需求依旧坚挺,美元兑日元料很难再录得如上周初那样的大幅跳升;② 但大华银行指出,日本财务大臣麻生太郎在周四日内的讲话,似乎在口头上给日元涨势设定了上限,明确无误地表达了对日元汇价过度走强的担心,这也是美元兑日元汇价在日内得以短线筑底的诱因。而在日本官方入市干预的意愿已经有所凸显的背景下,即使美元后市继续维持弱势,兑日元也很难立即下破103心理关口;③ 因此,上周初的低点103.18暂时成为了美元兑日元当前汇价的强支撑,更大情况下,汇价将在103.70-104.20区间横向波动,若美国政局出现明朗化带来利多,美元兑日元汇价将有望重新上攻阻力位104.50,并从而打开重返105关口上方的通道

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