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NYMEX原油失守40美元,因全球市场情绪仍偏空且供需失衡再抬头; ① NYMEX原油周四延续跌势,再度失守40美元/桶心理关口,因隔夜美元EIA原油库存意外续增的影响还在继续发酵,而全球需求前景则仍然不振。这配合上美国财政谈判再度遇阻带来的市场悲观情绪,令油价走势重新被空头主导; ② 此前,全球航空业本月以来频传重组、停运和裁员之类的消息,跨国航空旅行全面恢复仍遥遥无期,这意味着原油需求的一大部分也料难以得到恢复。而近期欧洲疫情再度大爆发引发的交通活动中断影响也开始凸显。这和供给端利比亚等产油国恢复产能,美国页岩油开采活动也回温的状况正构成鲜明对比,令油市供过于求场面重新凸显; ③ 鉴于OPEC+很难进一步强化减产力度,甚至要维持当下的减产水平都殊为不易,因此,油市前景仍完全指望经济前景的好转,否则,美油价格围绕40美元枢轴继续盘静的格局并不会有太多改观。短线油价支撑位暂时先下去39.00-20美元这一区间,跌破后将引发更深幅度的回调

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