预计澳元兑美元涨势将延续至明年；① 澳元兑美元的上涨更多是基于坚实的基本面，而非过度投机。这应会意味着澳洲联储采取不干预的方式。总体而言，认为澳元兑美元将在2021年延续涨势。澳洲联储近期表达对强势外汇感到舒适，9月会议纪要中重申了其观点，尽管更倾向于澳元走软，但澳元上涨与基本面相符；② 目前我们没有看到任何极投机性头寸的警告信号。也有强烈迹象表明近期澳元的涨势符合基本面，如澳大利亚出口一篮子大宗商品的价格一直相对较高，且目前的价格高于年初。中国经济活动（包括基础设施投资）的反弹预示着这些看涨的基本面将持续到2021年。与此同时，鉴于澳大利亚经济收缩幅度小于其它国家，收益率利差已明显向有利于澳元的方向发展
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