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大选前倒数第二份非农报告稍好于预期,但失业率长期处于高位风险上升; ① 美国8月份非农就业人数增加137.1万人,预期为增加135万人;失业率8.4%,预期为将9.8%;薪资年率4.7%,预期为4.5%; ② 在经济于第二季遭遇至少73年来最严重的冲击之后,美国总统特朗普可能把就业持续增加作为经济改善的证据。特朗普的民调支持率落后于民主党候选人拜登。不过就业水平可能仍会比疫情爆发前水准减少约1,150万。增加的工作岗位主要是先前被迫休无薪假或者被临时裁员的员工被召回。而且尽管感染人数增长有所放缓,许多疫情热点地区形势依然严峻。 ③ 另外,经济学家认为,失业率可能被低估,因为有人被错误地归类为“有工作但没去上班”。8月中时至少有2920万人请领失业津贴。每两名遭到解雇的员工仍将有一人处于失业状态,失业率长期处于高位的风险上升

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