FX Weekly: Short USD, Long EUR/USD

Overall drivers to currency markets are anchor pairs as well as 5, 10 year and longer term averages. On big trade days such as CPI and Fed interest rate releases, the anchor currencies are first to respond and easily outperform cross pairs. Cross pairs are not only secondary to respones but the trade reaction is not seen sometimes until the 2nd day of the release. The last CPI release was the perfect example. 

On big trade days, the best pairs to trade for most profit are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD Vs USD/CAD and USD/JPY. Overall best are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD. Preeminent cross pair trades are JPY as elite to most pip moves. 

EUR/USD and GBP/USD as wider ranges to AUD/USD and NZD/USD dictate pip movements. EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade more pips per trade day than AUD/USD and NZD/USD. For GBP/USD Vs USD/CAD is a 50/ 50 proposition. 

Certain days GBP/USD trades more pips than USD/CAD while other days, USD/CAD leads the way to most pips. On rare days, each trades the exact same amount of pips or in extremely close proximity.

Currencies trading normally over past months as follows: EUR/AUD, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD and USD/CAD. Trading normally to daily trades in terms of entries and targets traded perfectly and roughly 100 pip days. GBP/AUD's 400 pip drop on Friday eliminates normality. 

5 Year Averages 

DXY trades 1800 pips above its 5 year average and 1700 pips from the 50 year monthly average while USD/JPY trades 3100 pips from its 5 year average at 111.85.

USD/CAD trades 300 pips from its 5 year average at 1.2900’s and 1100 pips from the 10 year at 1.2400’s. EUR/USD trades 1600 pips from its 5 year average at 1.1400, GBP/USD 2200 pips from 1.3100, AUD/USD 700 pips from 0.7200's and NZD/USD 1000 pips from 0.6700's. 

EUR/USD from March 1985 lows and monthly averages at 0.6500's to 1.5700 highs in July 2008 contains a mid point at 1.1152. 

The week 

Trades this week are predominately one way as USD shorts to USD/CAD and USD/JPY while long GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/UD and NZD/USD. Targets for EUR, GBP. AUD and NZD leave all currencies in deeply oversold territory so no shorts are possible. 

Trade Rankings

 EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CHF, EUR/CAD, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/NZD, CAD/JPY, EUR/AUD.

USD/CHF

Massive overbought USD/CHF levels on the way down: 0.9779, 0.9751, 0.9723 and 0.9695 target. 

EUR/USD weekly trade 

Long 0.9638 and 0.9634 to target 0.9782. No short is possible as continuation trades. 

JPY Cross Pairs

NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY earn rankings as most oversold. Higher for GBP/JPY must break 162.00's. GBP/JPY trade to 160.00's and 161/;s normalizes current price from 155.00's.

CAD/JPY is least favored then AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY. 

USD/JPY weekly range trades in wide intervals from 143.00 to 146.00's. 

EUR/NZD V GBP/NZD

Massive divergence remains yet widened from last week as EUR/NZD trades massive overbought against its vital point at 1.6500's while GBP/NZD trades severely oversold and big break for higher at 1.9200's. 

May take weeks for EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD to align properly. 

EUR/AUD Vs GBP/AUD

EUR/AUD trades just below vital 1.4831 vs deeply oversold GBP/AUD at 1.7200's. 

CHF Cross Pairs

CHF cross pairs all align as deep oversold and ready to travel higher. GBP/CHF and EUR/CHf are first priority then NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF and CAD/CHF. 

USD/CAD 

USD/CAD not only trades overbought but 5, 10 and 14 year averages achieved targets at 1.3588, 1.3400 and 1.3200's. Good target for the week is 1.3399 and on the way to 1.3200's. USD/CAD short is the only trade available. 

CAD Cross Pairs

Best trades long: GBP/CAD, NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD. Nothing exciting to EUR/CAD this week. 

NZD Vs AUD

Both categories trade oversold as NZD/USD and AUD/USD and cross pairs. AUD/NZD trades overbought and targets 1.1284.