U.S. Economic Outlook: First quarter 2021
Economic recovery stalling after holiday surge in Covid-19 cases. Vaccine rollout falling short of expectations. High frequency indicators confirm need of further stimulus. Risks of widening inequality from long-term pandemic scarring.
Key points
- Additional fiscal stimulus would present upside to the economic outlook.
- Unified government improves chances for Biden’s agenda.
- Inflation outlook tilting to upside.
- Interest rates to remain at ELB despite optimism.
- Structural trends point to continuation of lower-for-longer for long-term yields.
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