Consumers pull back as Covid continues to surge

U.S. Review

Consumers Pull Back as COVID Continues to Surge

• Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
• The CPI advanced 0.4% in December (1.4% over the year). Inflation remains tepid, with core prices up 0.1% in the month.
• Initial jobless claims jumped to 965K (week end Jan. 9).
• Several Fed officials pushed back on the idea of a shift in monetary policy anytime soon.
• Industrial production rose 1.6%inDecember.
• Small business optimism (NFIB)dropped to 95.9 in December. Consumer sentiment (U. Michigan) slipped to 79.2 in January.

Global Review

International Data Mixed Over the Week

Brazilian inflation surprised to the upside in December, rising 4.5% year-over-year. Brazil’s inflation has been steadily increasing since May amid lower interest rates, additional fiscal spending and a weaker exchange rate.

Norwegian mainland output fell less than expected in November, suggesting risks to our Q4 GDP growth forecast are tilted toward the upside. Meanwhile, Norway’s inflation recovered in line with consensus estimates in December.

Elsewhere, Peru’s central bank opted to continue its expansionary policy stance, holding its reference rate at 0.25% and indicated it is ready to increase stimulus if needed.

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