Forecast for U.S. GDP Growth
What is expected?
JP Morgan is getting some attention today after economists there forecast a negative GDP number in Q1 2021 because of the virus and middling signals on U.S. fiscal stimulus.
That's a long way from consensus, which is still bullish on the recovery. Expect that to change in the weeks ahead as the lockdowns mount.
Currently, the consensus forecast for Q4 is +4.0% q/q SAAR followed by 3.1% in Q1 and 3.3% in Q2. Is there a possibility in downgrading Q4 and Q1 forecasts while boosting the further-out quarters in 2021?
Let me know your thoughts on this, people. :)
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