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马丁交易,心理史学和三体问题

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遭遇了上次止损,一直在系统上做回测,希望通过参数的优化在历史的事件中生存下来。

但无论怎样调整,马丁系统,都会遇到系统因为极端市场情况而奔溃的现象。就如同现在热播的基地,心理史学预测的未来都是确定的。崩溃不可避免。

而马丁交易者所以面对的市场,已超过了三体的复杂度。无论怎样的指标,判断,都无法有效预测未来,又如同三体问题。

而可以做的,就是在好的季节抓紧繁殖,在坏的季节,争取活下来。

马丁交易者一直被攻击,或许是只存在于好的季节 - 生存者偏见。而大风一来,前面一波都灭了。新的又如春草一般生长。

马丁交易者如此,非马丁的不也是如此。

 

马丁交易,心理史学和三体问题


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马丁只是一种交易策略和资金管理模式,最主要的还是人。
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