USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

#OPINIONLEADER#

USD/JPY rebounded after defending 109.10 support last week but stayed in familiar range. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high. On the downside, the break of 109.10 will argue that a larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. A deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, the medium-term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA will bring a deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, the strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). The further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long-term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long-term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, with no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Uptrend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.