USD Overview (16 June 2021)

#OPINIONLEADER#

ByJin Dao Tai

 JUN 16, 2021

Yesterday, USD strengthened against most major currencies except EUR, JPY and CHF.

The retail sales m/m data released yesterday indicated a decline in consumer spending in May as more people are spending less on goods. Instead, they are spending more on travel as restrictions get lifted.

• Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: -0.7%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.0% revised from -0.8%)
• Retail Sales m/m (Actual: -1.3%, Forecast: -0.6%, Previous: 0.9% revised from 0.0%)

The U.S. housing data will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).

• Building Permits (Forecast: 1.73M, Previous: 1.76M)
• Housing Starts (Forecast: 1.64M, Previous: 1.57M)

The Federal Reserve will be announcing their monetary policy decision tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8). It is expected that they will be holding monetary policy unchanged at its current configuration. With the continued increase in inflation, pay attention to what the Fed has to comment on this, specifically, take note of whether the committee is going to continue downplaying the inflation spike as transitory. The central bank will also be releasing their quarterly economic projection materials. With the recent releases of decent economic data, the Fed may revise their economic projection upwards. Furthermore, take note if any committee members are expecting an earlier hike in interest rate from the dot plot.

A press conference will be held at 0230 (GMT+8). During this time, volatility is expected in USD.