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2020年11月4日

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美国大选虽然尚未结束,初步判定特朗普获胜概率高。黄金也因此提前启动上涨。

特朗普政府仍然会按照之前的财政政策继续放水降息保持相对宽松的大环境。

随着继续宽松的环境其实美元指数下行空间已经不大了,如果美国下方利率已经锁死,那么其实黄金上行的空间就已经见顶了。那后续为什么黄金还有上涨预期,市场一致看多呢?主要是因为通货膨胀的预期增温,如果疫苗出来其实跟原油是一样的逻辑,随着市场开放经济回暖,那么原油价格就是最好的通货膨胀指标,那么后续原油根黄金可能在明年疫苗出来后,迎来双涨局面。

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