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圣杰良金:9.29外汇分析

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2020年9月29日星期二

大家好,我是圣杰良金。伯乐遇知音,千里马觅伯乐,不是所有的都适合,合适的只有一个。虽然你我只是偶然相遇,一篇文章的牵引,或许就是你投资路上越走越顺的基础。

昨日美指如预期承压震荡回修,日线收得一小阴线,跌回至5日线下方。从日线结构来看,美指的回修属于常规的技术性回修,虽然幅度相对较大,对前两个交易日构成吞没形态,但是这并未能完全破坏掉此前既已形成的看涨趋势。

目前美指日均线依旧保持交叉向上状态,只要行情不跌回至94-93.8以下去,那么此前的头肩顶形态的突破也依旧是有效的。而美指在此前连续上涨之后,出现短暂的回修也无可厚非,反倒有适当的回修,也更有利于后期行情的再度回升。需要注意的是,在昨日阴线影响下,日内美指可能会有一定的延续性回修,但是幅度不会很大,下方94一线势必会有争夺,技术上允许缓冲回撤至93.8,但从市场情绪角度考虑,如果真回撤至此,可能会引发市场的担忧情绪,所以最好的状态即回撤至94附近而不破。且考虑到本周非农数据公布,周初行情出现调整,那么行情极有可能会在周三小非农ADP数据公布前后即调整到位,要么震荡再小幅回弹,要么一直围绕在94上方窄幅震荡,如果出现偏差,那么周五非农行情的不确定性风险可能会更大。

镑美昨日出现一波强势拉升,主因是英国脱欧谈判前景转好导致的,但是此波回升至1.2930一线后受阻,随后又陷入震荡。因镑美走势很大程度上会受到自身基本面的影响,但此类消息面又很难明确,故稳健者暂时还是规避镑美以及镑系货币为宜。日内镑美技术点位可关注上方1.2900-30压力,下方关注1.2800附近支撑。


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