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圣杰良金:9.28外汇分析

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2020年9月28日星期一

大家好,我是圣杰良金。在市场上用贪心来交易时,就已经失去了最初的本心。盈也好,输也好,当你心态平稳,不再因为自己内心的波动主观判断行情时,你就是一名成熟的交易者了。

上周美指持续走强,冲破94压力,随后行情持续居于94上方运行,周线收得一大阳线。按照日线结构形态,上周突破94压力后,技术上头肩底形态基本确认成立,行情也如预期的持续回弹,按头肩底形态结构测算,未来上方短线可先关注94.7-95一带,但本轮突破后预期的最终目标可能会在95.7-96一带,所以目前美指的偏强走势可能只是初期状态。预期本周美指在94.7-95暂有承压的情况下,需要一定的回修调整,只要下方不跌回94以下去,那么日线级别的看涨趋势还是成立的,短暂修正回调后还会有进一步回升的需求。

根据小时图结构形态,美指目前也是居高震荡,但是不经一定的空间调整的情况下,行情也很难有十足的上涨动能跟进,也就难展开进一步的空间回升,所以本周初期还是期待美指能够在承压94.7-95之下进行一定的空间调整,预期空间回修不会太大,重点还是关注94.2-0一带。

本周需要注意的是,周五将有非农数据公布,而在数据前,美指如果能先有短暂回修,其后在进行一定的横盘震荡,那么后半周可能会因为非农数据的预期而出现提前回弹。但如果周初一直横盘,空间调整不够,则非农数据公布前,行情走势也就不是很好把控,并且不确定性也会增加。对于非美货币的操作上,本周初可尝试性的进行搏回弹,但主思路依旧看调整不便,后半周则根据市场对非农数据的预期,再做实时的调整。

镑美上周回落调整后,基本处于1.2800-1.2700之间偏弱震荡。考虑到未来英国将和欧盟开始新一轮脱欧贸易磋商,市场的不确定性风险极大,故稳健者近期可选择避开镑系货币。

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