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圣杰良金:下行趋势以到,原油即将跳水

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2020年9月28日星期一

大家好,我是圣杰良金。伯乐遇知音,千里马觅伯乐,不是所有的都适合,合适的只有一个。虽然你我只是偶然相遇,一篇文章的牵引,或许就是你投资路上越走越顺的基础。

原油:上周五美、布两油亚欧盘大部分时间分别维持在40和42美元上方,傍晚双双回落,均失守这两个关口。截至收盘,WTI原油微跌0.12%,报40.09美元/桶,布伦特原油微涨0.12%,报41.78美元/桶。


消息面:尽管受到制裁 伊朗仍大幅增加了石油出口。石油追踪商表示,9月迄今伊朗原油和凝析油日出口量估计接近150万桶,这将是一年半以来最高水平,且是8月观察到的出口量的两倍。数据显示,8月份伊朗的原油出口量远高于美国的数据。伊朗通过船对船的运输方式避开美国的制裁出口了多达60万桶/日的原油。

受飓风影响,上周墨西哥湾沿岸的原油产能部分关停。飓风劳拉和热带风暴贝塔导致部分原油产能关停,噪音很多,无法从库存报告判断出油市真正的供需状况。此外目前市场还担忧第二或第三波新冠肺炎疫情,所以供需前景不确定加之对未来的担忧,所以,今天原油看空。

技术面:原油上周5快速一波跳水砸穿过两天均线,所以下方支撑力度已经不在。并且目前布林上轨和中轨同时向下倾斜,蜡烛图跌破均线下轨,均线有向下的趋势。布林线开口缩小,下跌趋势太过明显。MACD能量太差,没有一点上涨的趋势。所以,今天油价看空。

观点:图为原油一小时走势图,油价在测试黄金分割回调位39.9支撑。若跌破39.9短线或将涨至黄金分割回调位39.4,若继续下行将进一步看涨至38。

若油价在39.9上方,短线或测试黄金分割回调位40.5,若突破后将进一步看跌至黄金分割回调位41。

具体交易策略若油价在39.9之下,短线看跌,第一目标位39.4,第二目标位38。

若油价在39.9之上,短线看涨,第一目标位40.5,第二目标位41。

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