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The EUR/USD pair hit a daily high of 1.1302, but gave up and settled near daily lows, in the 1.1230 price zone. Risk-appetite lead the way for most of the day, boosted early in the US session by an upbeat Nonfarm Payroll Report. According to official figures, the US added 4.8 million new jobs in June, while the unemployment rate contracted to 11.1%. The headline reading for May was upwardly revised to 2.7 million, adding to the good news. However, the US also reported a record 51,000 new coronavirus cases. New York delayed the re-opening of some indoor activity after California lockdown some areas on Wednesday. Also, Houston reported that ICU capacity is at 102%. Despite hopes a vaccine is nearby and that the economy is doing pretty well, the reality is that things are only getting worse in the world’s largest economy.
The US celebrates a holiday this Friday, which means the day will be over with London’s close. During the European morning, Markit will publish the final versions of the Union’s services PMI, seen little changed from preliminary estimates.
The EUR/USD pair is technically neutral, confined to a 1.1170/1.1330 range for a third consecutive week. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is between Fibonacci levels and moving averages, with the 100 SMA converging with the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily advance at 1.1270. Technical indicators eased within positive levels, now flat around their midlines. There’s no scope for a significant breakout during the upcoming sessions, but the risk is skewed to the downside, with better chances of a bearish extension being the next relevant move.
Support levels: 1.1210 1.1170 1.1125
Resistance levels: 1.1270 1.1310 1.1350
The USD/JPY pair is finishing Thursday with modest gains a few pips above 107.50, after barely reacting to US employment data and equities movements. The intraday upsurge to a daily high of 107.72, was backed by US Treasury yields heading higher with an upbeat employment report, which also boosted stocks, although the movements were quickly reverted amid coronavirus-related concerns. The virus seems out of control in the US, with the country reporting a record of over 51,000 new cases 24 hours ago. Dr. Fauci, the head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the country faces a “serious situation,” as the virus was never under control. This Friday, Japan will publish the June Jibun Bank Services PMI, previously at 26.5.
The USD/JPY pair has spent the day trading around the 38.2% retracement of its June monthly slide at 107.50, neutral in the short-term. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is struggling with converging 20 and 200 SMA, while the 100 SMA is flat around 107.20, providing immediate support. Technical indicators, in the meantime, are heading marginally lower around their mid-lines, skewing the risk to the downside without confirming another leg south.
Support levels: 107.20 106.95 106.60
Resistance levels: 107.95 108.30 108.65
The GBP/USD pair hit a fresh weekly high of 1.2529 but trimmed intraday gains ahead of the close, trading flat for the day at around 1.2460. The UK didn’t publish macroeconomic data, leaving the pair in the hands of sentiment. News, however, came from the Brexit front, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commented on the latest developments. According to her words, the EU and the UK are still quite far apart from reaching an agreement, adding that the EU will not accept Brexit agreement at any price and that the EU will have to prepare for other possible exit strategies on Brexit.
Weekly talks come to an early end this Thursday, as, according to EU’s chief negotiator Barnier complained of a lack of respect and engagement by the British government. “Serious divergences” remain according to both parts. The UK will publish this Friday the GFK Consumer Confidence previously at -30, while Markit will publish the final version of the UK June Markit Services PMI, foreseen unchanged at 47.
The GBP/USD pair is losing its positive momentum, but still far from bearish, according to intraday technical readings. In the 4-hour chart, it failed to sustain intraday gains above a bearish 100 SMA but remains above the 20 and 200 SMA, with the shortest still heading north. Technical indicators have retreated from intraday highs but stabilized well above their mid-lines. The pair could gather some bearish momentum on a break below 1.2450, the immediate support.
Support levels: 1.2450 1.2400 1.2360
Resistance levels: 1.2505 1.2560 1.2600
The AUD/USD pair surpassed its previous weekly high by a couple of pips, reaching 0.6951 before retreating to end the day unchanged at around 0.6920. Australia released its May Trade Balance this Thursday, which showed that the country’s trade surplus rose 2% to $8.03 billion in the month, as imports fell faster than exports. It was below the market’s expectations of $9 billion, but still positive. The pair followed equities for intraday direction.
This Friday, Australia will publish May Retail Sales, anticipated to be up by 16.3%. The country will also publish the AIG Performance of Construction Index for June, previously at 24.9, and the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI expected unchanged at 53.2. China, in the meantime, will publish the June Caixin Services PMI foreseen at 49.9, down from 55 in May.
The AUD/USD pair retains its neutral-to-bullish stance. In the 4-hour chart, the price is hovering around a flat 20 SMA and still above the larger ones, which lack directional strength. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength but hold above their mid-lines. The risk is skewed to the upside, but the pair needs a good catalyst to finally be able to gather bullish momentum and challenge the 0.7000 level.
Support levels: 0.6895 0.6850 0.6810
Resistance levels: 0.6950 0.6990 0.7015
Gold tested sub-1.760$ with another strong US labour data reading on Thursday before the long weekend in the US but managed to regain its lost ground. While markets are cheering up a strong V-shaped recovery supported by the strong data readings, at the same time the number of cases in the US continues to escalate with a fast pace. Therefore, the effects of solid data readings are usually short-lived for Gold as all the fundamentals like extreme liquidity, weaker USD and historic low rates are supportive for the yellow metal. On the other hand, rising tensions between the world’s two biggest economies will continue to favour Gold.
In terms of technical levels, over the 1.765$ (May 2020 peak), the resistances might be followed at 1.785$ (2012 multi-time peak), 1.800$ and 1.822$ levels. Below the 1.765$, the supports can be followed at 1.750$(December 2012 peak), 1.738$ (April double top) and 1.700$.
Support Levels: 1.750$ 1.738$ 1.700$
Resistance Levels: 1.785$ 1.800$ 1.822$
Silver failed to capitalise the move seen in Gold on Thursday. While the yellow metal regained its lost ground intraday, Silver remained in the negative area at a tick below 18.00$. Strong safe-haven demand for Gold in response to the uncertainty of the pandemic and central bank policy on interest rates and market stimulus pushed the gold-to-silver ratio – the number of ounces of Silver needed to buy an ounce of gold – to a record high of 125 in April as gold rallied. The ratio has since moved back below 100 as the silver price hiked higher, but it remains above the historical average of around 60, leaving room for further gains. The biggest setback for Silver is its lack of industrial demand due to the lockdown of global economies.
As 16.97$ (%50.0 14.29$-19.65$) stands as critical support, below this level, a test of 16.33$ (%61.8 14.29$-19.65$) and 15.55$ (%76.40 14.29$-19.65$) can be targeted. On the top side, over the 17.60$ (%38.20 14.29$-19.65$) resistance, 18.38$ (%23.6 14.29$-19.65$), 18.90$ (January and February peak zone) and 19.67$ (2019 peak) can be followed as targets up.
Support Levels: 16.97$ 16.33$ 15.55$
Resistance Levels: 18.38$ 18.70$ 18.90$
Another strong NFP data set boosted the sentiment in the US despite the surging number of new coronavirus cases in the US. The Labor Department reported on Thursday that US nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Expectations had been for a 2.9 million increase and a jobless rate of 12.4%. The report was released a day earlier than usual due to the July Fourth holiday. The jobs growth marked a big leap from the 2.7 million in May, which was revised up by 190,000. The June total is easily the largest single-month gain in U.S. history. On the other hand, along with positive data readings, Trump also teased the markets for further financial aid to individuals to balance the economy before the elections in November. Although there is still no clear sign of a resolution for the coronavirus pandemic, investors are rushing to equity markets with FOMO-fear of missing out attitude betting on an aggressive V-shaped recovery.
Below the 25.000 level, 24.719 (21.712-29.585 %61.80) 23.500 and 23.000 levels can be followed as support levels while a steady close over 25.667 (21.712-29.585 %50) will most likely to carry Dow Jones to 26.000, 26.577 (21.712-29.585 %38.200) and 27.000 levels.
Support Levels: 25.000 24.719 23.500
Resistance Levels: 26.000 26.577 27.000
WTI supported by the strong NFP data set on Thursday with the hopes of a faster recovery supported by positive data readings. However, the move up once again capped at 40.00$ zone which was tested a couple of times already since June. On Wednesday, the EIA data showed that the US crude stockpiles fell 7.2 million barrels from a record high last week, far more than analysts had expected, per Reuters. Also, the latest Baker Hughes data showed that the average US rig count for June 2020 stood at 274, down 74 from 348 counted in May 2020. At this point, while the macro-data sets are supporting oil prices, an increasing number of cases in the US is capping further advances as the lockdown measures are re-imposed in California.
A decisive move over 32.81$ (65.62$-0.00$ %50) might carry WTI to 40.56$ (65.62$-0.00$ %61.80), 50.00$ and 54.00 levels. Below the 32.81$ level, 31.00$, 27.40$ (9th of March dip) and 26.00$ levels can be targeted.
Support Levels: 31.00$ 27.40$ 26.00$
Resistance Levels: 40.56$ 50.00$ 54.00$
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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