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1026:英镑利空趋尽,短线关注反弹机会

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1026:英镑利空趋尽,短线关注反弹机会

一小时图上,英镑/美元隔夜大跌后V型翻转,释放了破位1.2200关口的空头力量积压后酝酿反弹修正。日内汇价缓慢盘整至1.2160发力向上,触及双重阻力1.2220一线再度小幅回落。从技术上看,如果汇价能突破1.2220阻力,进一步反弹将指向1.22401.22801.2310水平。

基本面上,英镑短期利空有所耗尽。受到隔夜英国央行行长卡尼答辩言论影响,市场对于英国央行11月会议上的宽松预期显著降温。卡尼表示,货币政策并非万能,不会盲目宽松,并在指定政策时会将英镑的大跌纳入考量。

笔者认为,卡尼的态度使得市场原本所预期的英国央行会因退欧而大幅宽松的预期泼上冷水。对央行滥用或泛用宽松政策的预期减轻了担忧。与此同时,美元加息预期炒作降温,此消彼长之下,镑/美或面临反弹风险。

交易策略:英镑/美元1.2180-1.2200区域做多,止损1.2160,目标1.22401.22801.2310

PS:投资有风险,入市需谨慎,以上观点仅供参考。

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