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英国脱欧谈判正耗尽市场耐心,欧元兑英镑短线上看0.9150① 欧元兑英镑周三受英国脱欧谈判进展不及预期状况下英镑跳跌的影响而走高,收复0.90关口,创10月底以来逾一个月新高。周四日内欧元兑英镑汇价仍维持强势,德国商业银行的分析师因此看好欧元汇价在后市继续跑赢英镑,交叉盘汇率将上看0.9150;② 该机构指出,由于投资者此前已经提前记入了乐观预期,因而英国脱欧谈判的前景影响将不甚对称,如果协议如预期达成,那么英镑兑美元将仅有小幅上行空间,而这一消息对欧元本身也有拉动作用,因此欧元兑英镑因此回落的空间也相当有限。但如果随着时间推移,在逼近年底大限时协议仍无眉目,那么英镑汇价就将独自承担压力苦果;③ 德商银行因此基于当前谈判形势判断欧元兑英镑有进一步走升至0.9150的空间,消息进一步恶化将推动汇价升至此前2017年的高位0.9308,如果硬脱欧不可避免,那么欧元兑英镑更将升至0.95上方。但反之,谈判消息若好转,则汇价可能仅将略微回落,支撑位在周三的低点0.8929

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